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New 30-year forecasts highlight robust growth, despite short-term uncertainties

Montreal, 26 February 2025 – Airports Council International (ACI) World releases its first bi-annual Advisory Bulletin on air travel demand for 2025, pulling data from over 2,700 airports in more than 180 countries and territories worldwide.

2024: A milestone for global air travel demand recovery and the dawn of a new normal

In 2024, the industry reached a significant milestone, with global passenger traffic not only recovering but also surpassing the pre-pandemic levels of 2019, marking a new era of growth.

Line graph showing monthly global domestic and international air passengers (2019–2024 Nov). Domestic travel recovered faster, surpassing 2019 levels in 2023, while international travel remained below 2019 levels until late 2024.

By November 2024 year-to-date (YTD), global passenger traffic increased by 8% year-on-year (YoY), reaching 103% of the November 2019 YTD level. While the domestic market grew by 3% YoY (also reaching 103% of the 2019 level), the international market played a key role in driving the recovery, with a 13% YoY increase, reaching 102% of pre-pandemic levels. However, recent monthly data suggests that the global recovery pattern may have reached its plateau, indicating a transition from post-pandemic rebound to a more stabilized growth phase.

Line graph showing global air passenger traffic indexed to 2019. Traffic drops sharply in 2020, then recovers. Pre-COVID forecast (dotted) rises steadily, while WATF2024 forecast (dashed) recovers slower through 2030.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global passenger volume was estimated to reach 11.4 billion passengers in 2024, or 124% of the 2019 level. The current projection of global passenger volume in 2024 is set to reach 9.5 billion passengers (to be confirmed by ACI World in July 2025), which is 104% of the 2019 level, or 9% YoY growth from the 2023 volume.

Line graph showing medium-term passenger traffic forecasts by region from 2018 to 2030, indexed to 2019. All regions dip in 2020, then rise, with Asia-Pacific, Latin America-Caribbean, and Africa growing fastest by 2030.

By the end of 2024, all markets are expected to have recovered from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and to have transition into a stabilized growth trajectory.

Africa: 236 million passengers (107% of the 2019 level)
Asia-Pacific:5 billion passengers (103% of the 2019 level)
Europe:5 billion passengers (102% of the 2019 level)
Latin America-Caribbean: 746 million passengers (111% of the 2019 level)
Middle East: 443 million passengers (109% of the 2019 level)
North America:1 billion passengers (104% of the 2019 level)

Emerging and developing economies are projected to mark higher growth rates than advanced economies, notably, with the Middle East and Asia-Pacific leading at a 5.2% and 5% CAGR between 2024 and 2030 respectively, outpacing the global average of 4%.

Navigating uncertainty: Global air travel in a volatile economic and geopolitical landscape

2024 saw global passenger growth face significant uncertainties that stemmed from evolving economic and geopolitical landscapes. The current reintroduction of tariffs by the U.S. under President Trump’s second term has raised concerns about potential disruptions to global trade, which could indirectly affect international travel demand. Additionally, ongoing supply chain challenges and production delays from aircraft manufacturers, as well as continuing geopolitical tensions, continue to pose a risk to growth opportunities by potentially altering flight routes, increasing operational costs, and affecting passenger sentiment.

In 2025, global passenger traffic is forecast to reach 9.9 billion with a 4.8% YoY growth rate. While passenger demand remains strong, the pace of expansion is expected to slow as markets shift from recovery-driven surges to structural, long-term growth patterns.

Key challenges such as economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and airline capacity constraints are expected to increasingly shape the industry’s trajectory. In advanced markets, demand stabilization, supply chain bottlenecks in aircraft production and airport capacity shortage may temper growth, while in emerging markets, high infrastructure investment and rising middle-class travel demand will likely continue to drive expansion. As the industry moves into a new era of growth, the airport industry must focus on financial viability, operational efficiency, and sustainability.

Long-term outlook: looking beyond 2043 and 2053

Bar chart showing global passenger traffic (in billions) from 2016 to 2053. Traffic drops in 2020–2021 due to COVID-19, recovers by 2024, and steadily grows to 2.4 times 2024 levels by 2053.

From 2024 to 2043, global passenger traffic is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% to reach 17.7 billion passengers. Based on the latest data, long-term forecasts now estimate a loss of 3 to 4 years of growth potential in global passenger traffic. By 2045, passenger numbers are expected to reach 18.7 billion, approximately doubling the 2024 level. Looking further ahead, passenger traffic is forecast to reach 22.3 billion by 2053—approximately 2.4 times the 2024 projection—driven by a CAGR of 3% between 2024 and 2053.

A bar graph showing projected growth of domestic and international airline passengers from 2016 to 2053, with domestic in red and international in blue. Domestic share declines from 59% in 2016 to 54% in 2053. COVID-19 noted in 2020.

As recovery neared completion in 2024, the balance between domestic and international passenger traffic returned to pre-COVID levels, with domestic travel making up 59% and international travel 41% of total traffic. In 2024, global domestic passenger traffic is expected to grow by 6% YoY, to reach 5.6 billion, while international passenger traffic is projected to see a stronger increase of 14%, to reach 3.8 billion (to be confirmed by ACI World in July 2025). Looking ahead, from 2024 to 2053, domestic passenger traffic is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.8%, whereas international traffic is expected to expand at a faster pace of 3.3%, underscoring the stronger long-term growth potential of international markets.

Top 20 markets by total passenger traffic forecast

A table showing the top 20 countries by rank in 2023, 2043, and 2053. The United States, China, India, and Japan are consistently in the top four across all three years, with some variation in ranking order.

Bar chart showing global air cargo forecast from 2016 to 2053 in million metric tonnes. Markers indicate 2024 hitting 2019 levels, 2043 reaching 1.7x 2024, and 2053 at 2x 2024 cargo levels. COVID-19 pandemic is noted.

In 2024, the air cargo market is expected to reach 115 million metric tonnes (to be confirmed by ACI World in July 2025), reflecting nearly a 9% YoY growth rate and surpassing last year’s forecast. In the long term, global air cargo volume is expected to grow steadily, with a projected CAGR of 2.7% between 2024 and 2043 and 2.4% between 2024 and 2053. However, recent shifts in global trade policies, including the reintroduction of tariffs and rising trade tensions between major economies, introduce uncertainty into the long-term outlook. These evolving dynamics could impact supply chain efficiencies, trade flows, and overall air cargo demand.

About ACI

Airports Council International (ACI), the trade association of the world’s airports, is a federated organization comprising ACI World, ACI Africa, ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East, ACI EUROPE, ACI Latin America and the Caribbean, and ACI North America. In representing the best interests of airports during key phases of policy development, ACI makes a significant contribution toward ensuring a global air transport system that is safe, secure, efficient, and environmentally sustainable. As of January 2025, ACI serves 830 members, operating 2,181 airports in 170 countries.